Everything’s cool til three percent on the 10-year

Posted in Hottest Jobs
Everything’s cool til three percent on the 10-year

Overnight rates are sticking at zero for the foreseeable future while the 10-year and 20-year Treasury yields rise. The Fed has said as much – they’re going to react, not proact (I know, it’s not a real word). As highlighted in Exhibit 2, so long as growth remains supported and/or monetary policy remains accommodative, this dynamic should provide a positive backdrop for equities, even if the move higher in real rates is faster than anticipated. With that said, we expect stocks may come under pressure as real yields approach zero and move back into positive territory, after trending negative since mid-2018. Josh here – real rates (nominal rates net of inflation), which we’ve talked about before, are going to determine how much more funny money gets thrown around.

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